Agriculture and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1990-2022)

Abstract

The performance of agriculture in the economic growth of Nigeria between 1990 and 2022 was examined to assess its failures and successes to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and currently the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These international development policies as initiated by the United Nations stress combating extreme poverty in the world. Agriculture with its component parts of crop production (cp); livestock (li); forestry(fo) and fisheries (fi) and their response to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reviewed using secondary data that were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) andtheCentral Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Analysis was made using the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to the component parts of agriculture within the temporal space of 1990-2022. Other coefficients of the VAR that were used included the unit root test; lag length criteria; stability condition test; Engle and Granger test and the test of autocorrelation. Theresults of the fitted model are that the coefficients of lags 1,2 and 3 of GDP, lag 1 of cp, lags2 and 3 of li, lags 1 and 3 of fo, and lags 1,2 and 3 of fi indirectly affected GDP. At lags 2 and 3 of cp, lag 1 of li, and lag 2 of fo affected GDP directly. Livestock, forestry and fisheries respectively affected other variables implying some relationship that can predict future values.Therefore, crop production-groundnuts, oil palm, rubber, cocoa etc. as it was until late1980 sis a major driver of the nation’s economy hence contributing significantly to GDP. The paper therefore suggests that a return to agriculture with rich investments in the component parts will sustainably strengthen the economy and further improve GDP.